https://predict-gi-risk-in-ida.com/ is a site operated by BU Innovations Limited (BUI/we/our/us) whose Company Number is 03708785 and registered office address is 2nd Floor, Melbury House, 1-3 Oxford Road, Bournemouth, BH8 8ES, UK. BUI a wholly owned subsidiary of Bournemouth University (BU).
Our site is made available free of charge. Our site is made available free of charge. We do not guarantee that our site, or any content on it, will always be available or be uninterrupted. We may suspend, withdraw or restrict availability of all or any part of our site without notice. We will try to give you reasonable notice of any suspension or withdrawal but we will not be liable if for any reason our site is unavailable at any time or for any period. From time to time, we may restrict access to some parts of our site, or our entire site, to any users.
Our site is for use by are healthcare professionals such as gastroenterologists, and specialist nurses. It is not intended for use by non-health professionals. The Predict GI Cancer in IDA app is a GI cancer risk predictive tool designed to be used with confirmed iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) patients prior to investigations. The app has only been formally validated using datasets from the population of the United Kingdom (UK). This risk prediction tool estimates the probability of GI cancer occurring without a guarantee that this GI cancer exists or will certainly occur. The app predicts the risk of GI cancer in patients with IDA merely based on four variables; age, sex, haemoglobin concentration (Hb), and mean cell volume (MCV). It does not adjust for other potential risk factors such as family history, previous cancer, race, unintentional weight loss, red meat consumption, alcohol or tobacco usage, etc. Predict GI Cancer in IDA cannot be used to predict GI cancer risk in any other patient group apart from adult patients with confirmed iron deficiency. The app is not intended to be used on patients who have been given iron replacement therapy prior to their blood testing as their Hb and MCV might be elevated by this therapy and might cause the app’s calculation, which relies on these blood markers values (Hb, MCV), to be unreliable. Additionally, the app is not intended to predict cancers other than GI cancers. The model does not claim to be the only method to Predict GI Cancer in IDA, nor does it preclude other methods to assess this risk.
The Predict GI Cancer in IDA app’s prediction model has been built by using anonymised clinical data for subjects in the UK referred for assessment in Poole Hospital NHS Foundation Trust’s IDA clinic with confirmed iron deficiency by standard laboratory criteria (transferrin saturation <15% and / or serum ferritin concentration less than the lower limit of the reference interval for the laboratory at the time) who were assessed between 2004 and 2018 inclusive. Cases presenting in 2004 – 2016 formed the training dataset (n=1879), whilst those presenting in 2017 – 2018 provided the validation dataset (n=511). Developing the model using the training dataset was carried out in 2018, before receiving the validation dataset. The final datasets included age at presentation and sex, blood test results (Hb, MCV and iron studies) and the diagnostic findings on standard investigation of the upper and lower GI tract. Datasets were complete for age, sex, Hb, MCV and presence / absence of GI cancer. The final prediction model in this app is based on the following mathematical formula of multiple binary logistic regression:
ln(GI cancer) ~ Β0 + Β1age + Β2sex + Β3Hb + Β4MCV.
Statistical assessment of validity and goodness of fit of the logistic regression model was satisfactory. Please refer to the research team’s publications to read more about the algorithm.
Please read this section carefully as it sets out the limits of our liability to you in relation to your use of this site and the Predict GI Cancer in IDA app. As the software is governed by separate terms, you should also read the limits of liability described in the GPL. The contents of this site including without limitation, the prediction model, risk prediction results, numbers, text, links and all other materials are provided as a convenience to our app users and are non-commercial, informational, educational and research purposes only. Healthcare professionals should rely on their own independent clinical judgement and knowledge, relevant referral guidelines, and on assessing all the GI cancer risk factors including the factors which have not been considered in the app when taking any decision relating to the patient’s future clinical management. So you should not avoid further investigations following a prediction of a very low risk of GI cancer. Also, prediction of a high risk of GI cancer should not result in you fast-tracking the necessary investigations such as colonoscopy. Predict GI in IDA app is designed as an adjunct to standard counselling and personal discussion with a health care professional, and cannot replace it. All results are reference information only and must be interpreted in the context of each patient’s individual circumstances. The Predict GI in IDA app is not intended for use in the diagnosis of GI cancer or any other condition, or the cure, mitigation, treatment or prevention of disease in man, or other animals. We do not take responsibility for the decisions taken by the users based solely on the information provided in the Predict GI in IDA app. Although we make reasonable efforts to update the information on our site, we make no representations, warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, that the content of our site is accurate, complete or up to date. We are not responsible for checking or updating material or links that we provide. If you use any information or materials on this site, you do so at your own risk. We are not liable for any loss you incur by using any of the information or materials available on our site. It is your responsibility to ensure before you use them that any information available through our site meets your specific needs. Nothing in these terms excludes or limits in any way our liability to you where it would be unlawful to do so. This includes liability for death or personal injury caused by our negligence or the negligence of our employees, agents or subcontractors and for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation.
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